Bad idea
by dixie
There’s been so much talk, casual and otherwise, about the Obama/Clinton matchup for the Democratic primary next year. Obama announced his candidacy last week, and people waited excitedly for Hillary Clinton’s own announcement, which happened over the weekend.
I’m going to go out on a limb here and say I really hoped Clinton wouldn’t run for President this cycle.
I say this as an extremely casual observer of the politics and posturing that goes on in between major elections. While I believe the “black or female?” question of America’s ability to accept a leader with new and interesting demographic information is interesting academically, the reality is far more complicated than just their melanin or chromosome situation.
The problem is that I think both would be interesting and possibly even good Presidents, and I didn’t want them running against each other. During the California primary for governor, we saw the opposed situation: two reasonably awful candidates slogging it out between each other. The result was that no one was going to really like either candidate by the end. I don’t want either Clinton or Obama to get so trashed during this election cycle that a subseqent bid might be tarnished.
Obama announced first. I really hoped Clinton would decide to concentrate on doing her job as a Senator and save her money and ambitions for a later election. Now I will likely end up disappointed in both of them, and I doubt I’d be the only one.
Comments
Obama is an interesting candidate, but it’s uncertain what, if anything, he stands for.
I think that Obama has had an awful lot aired early (like the drugs thing, and Fox telling people he attended a Madrassa(!)). He’s played a smart game, in that accusations of never having done anything don’t seem nearly as risky as having voted for stuff (consistently or not).
I think the center of question lies in who runs for veep. Even if Obama loses this primary, he’s far from done. Clinton has to win hers. Neither of them are from decently-sized states, so that race needs a southern Dem with a decent midline voting record.
“Obama is an interesting candidate, but it’s uncertain what, if anything, he stands for.”
Change. Somehow the Democrats managed to take Congress running on the “dear God anything but more of the same” platform, and they were constantly lambasted as not standing for anything, not having a plan, etc. Now, a week or so into the season, they’ve followed through on that plan they apparently didn’t have and passed everything Pelosi promised they would. (Will it all go into law? Probably not, and with the line-item veto back up for debate in the Senate things are looking very precarious indeed, but the House Dems did what they could.)
I worry that Obama will go the way of Dean — popular favourite, media darling, ultimately there just to absorb the attention (and attending criticism) while the real candidate raises money, plans quietly, and bides her time. Hopefully Obama won’t do anything to ruin his future chances.
As for the Democratic race *needing* a southern Dem to round out the ticket, I doubt it. Edwards, an upstanding southerner with a midline voting record and a soft spot in his heart for big business, didn’t help Kerry. (And may be the dark horse for this primary season.)
On the subject of fund-raising, Hilary has just declared that she will be ‘going it alone’ and not accepting any of the tax-dollars offered for this sort of thing. (And none of the spending limits either, smart girl.)
Now Hilary is a proven go-getter on the finance front, and her move is probably going to force other candidates to do the same, but will it force Obama out of the race before it’s begun? Can he get together the mega-bucks needed to run for Prez?
On fundraising in the modern election, and why no one with a serious bid will be accepting public funds:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/1/17/193350/460
What I’ve read says its still far too early to say anything – simply that everyone had to declare this early or they’d get no attention later and the resulting long haul race under youtube scrutiny will give ample opportunity for resource burnout (unlikely for Hilary) or a disastrous slip captured and uploaded to wipe them out.
Edwards has been super-tactical building up his bases in the states to get the primary, but he hasn’t a hope as a candidate – he’s just not plausible, too light-weight. Even though inexperienced, Obama has a statesmanlike air… but having said that, Dubya got elected…
*shrug*
Magic 8-ball says ‘answer unclear, ask again later’
[...] January 9th @ 10:07 pm by dixie I am still torn between Clinton and Obama this primary season. I’m frustrated that while people have [...]