By uber
John McCain is increasingly becoming an embarrassment to the Republican Party. He’s been making gaffes on foreign and national policy around the clock for the last few weeks, and his campaign is looking more and more desperate as it goes for cheap stunts like mentioning that Obama is Castro’s choice.
It’s weak sauce, but it might help in keeping working-class males in the McCain pen, possibly.
With George Bush looking like one of the most unpopular Presidents ever, there is a need for the Democratic party to take the field. I don’t actually think that a Democratic candidate would help the world much, if they follow the worst of the party rhetoric and dump NAFTA, followed by caving the unions on tariffs and outsourcing.
However, if we are lucky, we will get a President who is a good economic centrist with his eye on lowering inflation and opening trade barriers as wide as possible. America is still the prime market, and it will be for a very long time.
I have two journalist pieces that are worth looking at for more thoughts on Obama. The first is an op-ed piece from the Wall-Street Journal called ‘Baghdad, Berlin, Barack‘. It’s interesting because it points to the fact that Obama is a highly consensual candidate, and that a lot of people like him.
It’s striking that his critics talk of him being ‘only’ 4% ahead, he’s on the sliding scale of expectation. It could be argued that that margin is inside the Bradley number, but I’m not convinced.
The second piece is from Reuters, ‘Obama message sinks in [...]‘. It’s a good piece on the nuance of what Barack Obama actually asked the people of Berlin for, and what the real cost to Europe will be if they get what they wish for.
Whatever happens, it’s hard to imagine we’ll see a Johnson or Nixon-style landslide. I think Obama will take 50-51% of the vote and be happy.
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25th of July, 2008
If Obama takes 50-51% of the vote, he will lose.
I say this not because I specifically fear pregnant chad, butterfly ballots, or whatever, but because I have too much faith in the Republican machine’s ability to take a tiny margin of defeat and turn it into a victory via expensive tricks and loopholes.
On the other hand, if Bob Barr (from my hometown, practically — he’s one district over, in one of the areas I spent a lot of time playing in during high school) runs a good campaign, it might be the best thing to happen. It would be nice to be on the winning side of a Nader effect for once.
25th of July, 2008
It’s very hard to imagine him doing a lot better. After all, the popular vote was only just preserved in 2004.
It would be nice to be on the winning side of a Nader effect for once.
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:ElectoralCollege1996-Large.png Ross Perot did a nice job in ‘96.
25th of July, 2008
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:ElectoralCollege1992-Large.png That should of course have been ‘92.
26th of July, 2008
I actually preferred Bush at the time. It was 1992. I was 12. I’ve changed a bit since then, but the result is still that I’ve always been on the losing side of the third party problem.
26th of July, 2008
Unfortunately the more this campaign goes on the weaker Obama is looking. That speech in Berlin sounded like the typical populist politics where there is no policy substance to back things up. Meanwhile Obama has shown no sign of economic policy other then more spending. At this point I am finding it very hard to see Obama being a better option than McCain (someone who I don’t hold in a very high regard). I truly think fancy pants showmanship has hoodwinked the American population.
26th of July, 2008
From my brief conversations with various Eastern seaboard types just recently, they reckon it’ll be a photo-finish or close to.
I think there were bits in the Berlin speech which showed he’s got a grasp on the things that need to be done - Afghanistan needs the European NATO contributors to pull their weight if they’re saying they’re committed. The willingness to put unpalatable realities in there is a good sign to me.
Of course, he’s a pol, he didn’t get where he is by being nice - and at this stage I will settle for *competent* and to my eyes McCain is just too hung up on the Neocon hook; maybe he has integrity and experience but attacking Iran (which he’s all for) would rank so high in the annals of stupidity that it would make Iraq look like the Marshall plan.
26th of July, 2008
Fancy-pants showmanship has been the order of the day for Americans since before any of the Coven bloggers were born. Make no mistake. Aren’t we discussing in another front-page entry the dismal fact that reality shows get fantastic ratings while shows like Firefly struggle for life on American TV?
Yes, Obama is being showy and populist. Doesn’t mean he doesn’t have real plans lurking underneath all that. Just means he’s smart enough not to bore America (you really thought those talks in Europe were for Europeans?) with dull details that no one will understand (or like).
1st of August, 2008
I think the fact that he’s asking the Germans for support in Afghanistan is a good thing: it means he’s acknowledging that America needs help, and isn’t the gung-ho go-it-alone superpower that Bush has made it seem at times. It also should, in theory take some pressure off the US by getting the European NATO powers to pull a bit more of the weight.
Just a thought