By xaosseed
Watching a merry band of pirates rip shred what was supposed to be the new business model for content creation - the Dr. Horrible ‘free for a time, then pay to download’ - I wondered what *is* the thinking on how one should get media to pay?
I remember the Naked one giving a big schpiel to Savage and I about how if people can pirate, they will and not really having any ideas for how to avoid the logical conclusion here - revenue streams shrink, nothing but the lowest-common denominator dross gets made because they’re the only things that still have a large enough rump ‘non-piratey’ audience remaining.
To me it seems Sci-fi is the worst because its specialty anyway and its fans are most likely to understand and be able to rip them off and download them. I bet we’re in fact going to see wretched ‘backlash’ IP laws that make fair use into a gigantic hassle never mind being enlightened about using the web - but what is the model that would theoretically work?
Things stuffed full of product placements that are expected to be free? Walled garden models like iTunes? Is it a lost cause and soon we’ll have nothing but rubbish and reruns because nothing can get funding? Will it be that movies will make their money off the cinema, musicians off the concerts and merch with the ’small screen’ written off as loss-leader?
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25th of July, 2008
The schpiel is a mile off. There are load of valid revenue streams, such as niche creation. The long tail model has shown that the potential audience for stuff is massive.
The thing is that content creators and distributors need to change their model. It’s not acceptable any more to release stuff early in one part of the world. There is no sensible reason why I can’t get US tv on Hulu in Ireland, except for sweetheart licensing deals.
The central problem with paying for stuff at the moment, is that it generally requires a credit card. There needs to be a better model on how to let people pay easily, without putting more risk on money-laundering issues.
25th of July, 2008
Also, in the Dr. Horrible case in particular, it CANNOT be bought here. It’s available on iTunes, but so far as I can tell, only in the USA. I *tried* to spend money on this product, and failed. Yet, it’s a complex musical (I read somewhere something about triple-layed counterpoint singing or some such muso-techno-babble) and the lyrics warrant repeated listening. As Uber says, that’s a failure to distribute, and it’s one of the things that needs working on.
Joss Whedon’s fans are a special subset of special people, and the cost on iTunes was pretty small ($4 for all three Acts), I don’t think that he’s going to lose too much money from his genuine fans. Those who could have payed their $4 probably did, and many of them will buy the DVD as well, for the extras and/or the convenience of watching on their TV. I think Whedon’s system is going to do all right for him, the pirates might help people get it faster, but I’m not sure they’re going to really hurt his profits from this.
25th of July, 2008
Firstly, it’s been projected that so far with itunes alone Dr. Horrible has pulled in $3.5m+, and Whedon has said that that number is fairly accurate, and will only increase with the launch of the soundtrack album and DVD.
http://blog.jeffreymcmanus.com/896/whats-in-it-for-doogie-howser/
Personally I download new shows from the net pretty much every day, but if it’s a series I really enjoy I will also buy it on DVD as soon as it is available.
I think the important thing to watch will be how successful sites like Hulu or the CW’s WB.com are- official versions of sites like Sidereel and tvlinks that allow the watching of shows with limited interruption by advertisements (mainly by the US Air Force. Air. Space. Cyberspace.).
25th of July, 2008
It’s true that the sci-fi / fantasy niche is the most likely to pirate shamelessly, but I’ve noticed that nice audiences in general (including the sci-fi crew) will happily turn over their pocket money to support stuff they like. They will also shame their peers into doing the same. (Ask a knitter for a copy of a pattern, and you risk being burned at the stake. I watch these conversations with a sort of horror.)
All of us can (and possibly have) pirate Firefly. Most of us own the DVD set. All of us can (and probably have) pirate Dr. Horrible, but have plans to buy the DVDs when they can. (Mr. E makes a good point about distribution. I think Joss is aware of the issue and thinks it’s shameful.) There is a strong incentive to make things of real quality because people will bend over backwards to pay for quality.
25th of July, 2008
The other colossal flaw in the argument is the notion that TV execs would prefer to run something like sci-fi over america’s top hooker. There are a few who are in it for making cool stuff, but everyone is in it to be able to eat and more importantly to stay in teeveeland. Reality is super-popular - it has the numbers.
26th of July, 2008
I might take a contraversial view.
So i will try to keep it short.
Less money means it is harder to produce good cool things. :(
Harder means more inovation, the more inovative will win. :)
The mainstream will lose, the LCD will lose.
Hoo-ray for pirating.
26th of July, 2008
Reality television has been the biggest innovation of late - and indeed, its very, very cheap relative to what went before. This is why I’m concerned - a global shift towards ‘cheaper’ because revenues just cannot be secured or replaced will, from evidence to date, be a global shift towards crap.
With the charming side-effect of continuing to propagate the socially toxic ‘you can be rich and famous for no effort’ meme which I have a problem with.
28th of July, 2008
Reality TV (RTV) also falls foul of having an extremely short shelf life and no box-set resale value.
I think there is a definite shift in how people are watching and paying for media, but the two are moving at different paces, and the revenue is certainly playing catch-up for now.
There are lots of predictions about how the old models are failing and everyone is hunting around for the next market. The reality is TV and RTV as we know them are not going anywhere any time soon, but we will certainly see a market where you will pay for quality media. The good stuff will more like than not ship with added extras that are withheld from the free market offering, as I expect we will see when we can FINALLY purchase Dr. Horrible and the long line of imitators that are being pushed through pre-production as we speak.
The one part of the landscape that won’t change are those that are the catalyst for all of this shake-up, the pirates. They will continue to infringe and distribute ‘for free’ regardless of the source.
1st of August, 2008
The business model seems to be working ok after all, from what I can tell, there seem to be not insignificant amounts of money being made… the problem is that there could be more, if distribution was done properly. I have money I want to give to Joss Wheedon, and I can’t do so. However, as with any new technology, this has bugs that need to be ironed out. I’d say you can expect to see this model being re-used.
Pirates are a problem. Not a whole lot you can do about that.