BARTLET I won’t lie to you, being fictional was a big advantage.

It’s interesting to watch the GOP regain control of the cycle, and to watch progressives lose their heart again. I am worried that we’ll have to take on the old cliché that the other side wanted it more.

It’s weak sauce, but it might help in keeping working-class males in the McCain pen, possibly.

With George Bush looking like one of the most unpopular Presidents ever, there is a need for the Democratic party to take the field. I don’t actually think that a Democratic candidate would help the world much, if they follow the worst of the party rhetoric and dump NAFTA, followed by caving the unions on tariffs and outsourcing.

However, if we are lucky, we will get a President who is a good economic centrist with his eye on lowering inflation and opening trade barriers as wide as possible. America is still the prime market, and it will be for a very long time.

I have two journalist pieces that are worth looking at for more thoughts on Obama. The first is an op-ed piece from the Wall-Street Journal called ‘Baghdad, Berlin, Barack‘. It’s interesting because it points to the fact that Obama is a highly consensual candidate, and that a lot of people like him.

It’s striking that his critics talk of him being ‘only’ 4% ahead, he’s on the sliding scale of expectation. It could be argued that that margin is inside the Bradley number, but I’m not convinced.

The second piece is from Reuters, ‘Obama message sinks in [...]‘. It’s a good piece on the nuance of what Barack Obama actually asked the people of Berlin for, and what the real cost to Europe will be if they get what they wish for.

Whatever happens, it’s hard to imagine we’ll see a Johnson or Nixon-style landslide. I think Obama will take 50-51% of the vote and be happy.

You might want to start with the New York Times guide to the Election Primaries.

Informational sites

Political Base a web 2.0 election site designed to let people comment and track issues, candidates and the money.

Open Secrets Presidential 2008 more information on funding and sources of money

Sourcewatch can be a useful resource for finding out about sites you want background for (though it has been accused of bias itself)

FactCheck.org Another issues site, which Dick Cheney accidentally recommended as “.com”

Other Parties

Guide to American Political Parties note that you probably won’t need to know much about any party other than the GOP and the Dems.

Red Sites

Red State Wonkette for the right?

Drudge Report, Matt Drudge is fast on scandal, but has had some embarrassing retractions.

The Cato Institute is a liberatrian think-tank.

Little Green Footballs is a well-read source of rightwinginess.

Michelle Malkin Conservative Cover Girl.

Instapundit, highly influential on the right and in blogging in general.

Blue Sites

Crooks and Liars mainly youtube and other videos of embarrassing moments for mostly right wing people.

Wonkette hates everyone, but hates the GOP more. Angry and acerbic commentary about politics, with some good DC insider info.

Daily Kos Moulitsas might be a Democratic Party shill, but his site is a must-read.

HuffPost Arguably one of the most-read blogs on the web

Think Progress Another good site for videos and sound bites.

TPM Muckraker The scruffier part of a more respectable blog.

Obviously, you can also get information from the Washington Post, NY Times, Wall Street Journal (if they open up), Financial Times, Economist, Spectator and the rest of the main stream media.

If I can find the time, I will follow this up with info on the candidates themselves.

I award myself a 5% margin of error.

Edit: Just to add some stuff:
What the Iowa Caucus is.

Now he’s got former wrestler Ric Flair.

It seems like a good idea on one hand. I wonder how it will compare in impact with the big O₂ endorsement that gets international attention.

Huckabee is no Ron Paul, he’s not picking up the Paultard Power. His advert with Chuck Norris was savvy though, and maybe his brand of less-batshit-crazy-than-Ron (ie closer to the GOP middle) might be a winner, but it’s still hard to see him get to the last post nationally.

I might add that I don’t endorse or support him, and that he does have some important issues to contend with.

Every time you click an adsense link, it costs someone money, if you can crowdsource with sufficient force (eg by posting on reddit and digg and making a joke out of it), you can cost someone real money, and in the zero-sum-game of politics, you have helped your chosen candidate.

Stephen Colbert, the wingnut presenter of The Colbert Report, has announced that he is running for president, possibly only in South Carolina.
His popularity is well proven, and the establishment are already clucking their tongues and thinking
“what shall we do to stop this Colbernaught?”

It’s hard to imagine that there is over a year to go in the US presidential election. It’s a serious financial business, well over 100 Million Dollars will be spent by each of the serious candidates.

The interest is heightened by the lack of a natural successor to a deeply polarising and controversial president. The VP is not running, and none of the other members of the administration (such as Condi) seem ready to take the plunge. It’s the most democratic election in years: anyone with $100million of their friends’ money can run.

This is the first election which have a serious offer from a black guy(Borat’s favourite does not count) and a woman. The old favourites are also there, like actors, has-beens, never-weres, dog mistreaters and gnomes.

There is an extraordinarily loud following for Ron Paul from people who seem to think he would make a ticket with Kucinich. These are the sort of people who haven’t stopped to wonder why they suddenly share an opinion with Tucker Carlson, and who thought Buchanan jumped the shark on them since he had been so solid on the war thing.

Since I don’t have a vote, it’s all the more interesting to watch how this will play out. The nearest I can get is writing Executive Decision scenarios from the headlines.