The 12th amendment dictates that the incoming congress then gets to choose, but the exact rules are complex. The Senate chooses the vice-president; one senator one vote. Currently the prediction is for some 54 to 57 Democratic senators, so this scenario welcomes Joe Biden as VP. Meanwhile, the House of Representatives chooses the president. But here it is one state one vote. The 53 Californian representatives get together to make their choice, and the 1 North Dakotan representative has an equal vote. Currently the Democrats control 26 states to 21 for the Republicans, with 3 ties. It is more likely that the Democrats will hold or add to that lead in the election, and the House would then select Obama as president. But it is possible that the Republicans (although they have no credible chance of taking a lead in the total number of representatives) could take the lead in the number of states, and Biden could find himself working with president McCain. Or maybe neither party would be able to muster a majority of votes in the House. If the Senate chooses Biden and the House is split, Biden becomes president. If neither chamber is able to make a choice, then speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi becomes president.

The US government is wacky. Add this to the list of weird things, like what happens if Beau Biden* gets nominated a Senator while serving in Iraq.

* His middle name is Robinette, which I find unusual.

In the interim, I have a few fun internet things to post. None of them is a post of its own, but together, they might be nice.

Irish Lawyer Fergus O’Rourke points to interesting figures from the Economist, that explore the details about the mind of the Irish electorate.It seems that Europe is still popular in Ireland, and the final analysis seems to point to the notion that the case was simply not made for the treaty. It points to the fact that there is a clear need for an Irish political body which is pro-Europe, but more skeptical than our current parties.

Techdirt has an article on university patents and how they have harmed basic research. It’s an area of considerable interest to me, especially as I am moving towards a big research project. There is huge pressure in Ireland to get IP income out of research, but it seems to me that since most of the IP goes to startups, and that very few patents anywhere make money, the restrictive nature of the current model *is* hurting innovation. On the other hand, patents can work. The University of Nottingham has MRI (I think) machnes to thank for being differentiated financially from a whole slew of Universities in the UK.

You probably missed Hug a Developer Day, if you did, shame on you. Code Monkeys are people too.

Ok, I know everyone is sick of the election already, so I held these to the end: Hating Obamawith Gerard Baker in the Times. McCain is a lying liar by Krugman in the NYT.

It’s weak sauce, but it might help in keeping working-class males in the McCain pen, possibly.

With George Bush looking like one of the most unpopular Presidents ever, there is a need for the Democratic party to take the field. I don’t actually think that a Democratic candidate would help the world much, if they follow the worst of the party rhetoric and dump NAFTA, followed by caving the unions on tariffs and outsourcing.

However, if we are lucky, we will get a President who is a good economic centrist with his eye on lowering inflation and opening trade barriers as wide as possible. America is still the prime market, and it will be for a very long time.

I have two journalist pieces that are worth looking at for more thoughts on Obama. The first is an op-ed piece from the Wall-Street Journal called ‘Baghdad, Berlin, Barack‘. It’s interesting because it points to the fact that Obama is a highly consensual candidate, and that a lot of people like him.

It’s striking that his critics talk of him being ‘only’ 4% ahead, he’s on the sliding scale of expectation. It could be argued that that margin is inside the Bradley number, but I’m not convinced.

The second piece is from Reuters, ‘Obama message sinks in [...]‘. It’s a good piece on the nuance of what Barack Obama actually asked the people of Berlin for, and what the real cost to Europe will be if they get what they wish for.

Whatever happens, it’s hard to imagine we’ll see a Johnson or Nixon-style landslide. I think Obama will take 50-51% of the vote and be happy.

So, as it stands on predicted delegates:

• Democrats
• Clinton is on 259
• Obama is on 190.
• Republicans
• McCain is on 90
• Romney 77
• Huckabee 40

[Source: Washington Post]
Edited with thanks to Dixie

You might want to start with the New York Times guide to the Election Primaries.

Informational sites

Political Base a web 2.0 election site designed to let people comment and track issues, candidates and the money.

Open Secrets Presidential 2008 more information on funding and sources of money

Sourcewatch can be a useful resource for finding out about sites you want background for (though it has been accused of bias itself)

FactCheck.org Another issues site, which Dick Cheney accidentally recommended as “.com”

Other Parties

Guide to American Political Parties note that you probably won’t need to know much about any party other than the GOP and the Dems.

Red Sites

Red State Wonkette for the right?

Drudge Report, Matt Drudge is fast on scandal, but has had some embarrassing retractions.

The Cato Institute is a liberatrian think-tank.

Little Green Footballs is a well-read source of rightwinginess.

Michelle Malkin Conservative Cover Girl.

Instapundit, highly influential on the right and in blogging in general.

Blue Sites

Crooks and Liars mainly youtube and other videos of embarrassing moments for mostly right wing people.

Wonkette hates everyone, but hates the GOP more. Angry and acerbic commentary about politics, with some good DC insider info.

Daily Kos Moulitsas might be a Democratic Party shill, but his site is a must-read.

HuffPost Arguably one of the most-read blogs on the web

Think Progress Another good site for videos and sound bites.

TPM Muckraker The scruffier part of a more respectable blog.

Obviously, you can also get information from the Washington Post, NY Times, Wall Street Journal (if they open up), Financial Times, Economist, Spectator and the rest of the main stream media.

If I can find the time, I will follow this up with info on the candidates themselves.

I award myself a 5% margin of error.

Edit: Just to add some stuff:
What the Iowa Caucus is.